首先,让我们看看Curry的赔率在整个系列中是如何变化的。
按照赔率趋势,库里几乎锁定了2022年NBA总决赛MVP,假设勇士队在接下来的两场比赛中赢得一场。安德鲁·维金斯在总决赛中的一贯性和双向性成为了一个有趣的话题,但11名媒体成员怎么能不投票给一名场均得分30.6分、5.6个篮板、4.8次助攻和1.8次抢断,同时每场比赛连得5个三分的球员呢?
公平地说,威金斯在第五场比赛中的出色表现很大一部分归功于他对咖喱指令的关注。库里一直面临凯尔特人的防守,几乎没有射门的空间(尽管在比赛中他仍然可以有效射门)。
维金斯在带球突破上的下坡进攻和切入篮筐的能力造就了令人难忘的NBA总决赛表现,最后他在德里克·怀特身上大力灌篮,险些锁定胜局。威金斯也成为了一个篮板球机器,在过去两场比赛中抢下了29个篮板。
However, Wiggins’ overall stats for the series (18.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals) just don’t compare to Curry’s. He might steal a vote like Fred VanVleet did in 2019, but barring something crazy happening in the last two games, this is still Curry’s trophy to lose. As such, it’s not worth betting Wiggins’ at +1800 unless you already have a Curry ticket and you’re just hedging against that “something crazy” we just mentioned.
Despite everything we just said about Curry’s odds, laying this type of juice to bet on him isn’t worthwhile considering he got up to +200 (implied probability 33.33 percent) when the Warriors trailed 2-1 after Boston’s 116-100 win in Game 3. Curry’s price to win MVP is a tad shorter than Golden State’s price to win the NBA Finals (-400, implied probability 80 percent), but it’s still too steep of a price to bet on right now.
如果这个系列赛回到旧金山,库里赢得MVP的几率很可能与勇士队的赔付价格一致。金州勇士队的资金线价格一直徘徊在-165大关附近(隐含概率62.26%),按照这个价格,值得押注斯蒂芬赢得他的第一个总决赛MVP。
With the Celtics listed as 3.5-point home favorites and -165 on the moneyline to win Game 6, per Bet MGM, now is the time to wager on either Jayson Tatum (+375) or Jaylen Brown (+2500). Their respective odds will likely be shorter after a win on Thursday night, so get in on the action ahead of Game 6 if you think this series will go seven.
It’s possible that another Celtic, such as Marcus Smart (+15000) or Al Horford (+25000), could swoop in to steal the award with back-to-back monster performances, but chances are, if Boston wins the title, it will be on the backs of its two young superstars. Tatum’s stats are slightly better than Brown’s (21.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists for Brown compared to 23.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists for Tatum), but this is still a close enough race that the significantly longer odds for Brown make him the better value of the two.
BetMGM提供的赔率
游戏者
团队
可能性
库里
勇士队
-350
杰森·塔图姆
凯尔特人队
+375
安德鲁·维金斯
勇士队
+1800
杰伦·布朗
凯尔特人队
+2500
克莱汤普森
勇士队
+10000
马库斯-斯玛特
凯尔特人队
+15000
霍福德
凯尔特人队
+25000
乔丹·普尔
勇士队
+25000
Draymond绿色
勇士队
+25000
罗伯特·威廉姆斯
凯尔特人队
+25000
Derrick白色
凯尔特人队
+25000